The Barnum effect is the tendency to accept vague, general statements as a uniquely accurate description of yourself. “You have a great need for other people to like and admire you.” “At times you are extroverted, at other times reserved.” Lines like these fit nearly everyone, yet read as personal. Also called the Forer effect, it is why horoscopes, palm readings and some personality quizzes feel uncannily right, and it is one of the best-documented cognitive biases in personality assessment.

The Barnum effect at a glance

  • What happens: a description that would fit almost anyone is accepted as a precise portrait of one person.
  • The classic result: 39 students given the identical sketch rated it about 4.3 out of 5 for accuracy.
  • What strengthens it: believing the text was written for you, favourable wording, and the authority of a test or expert.
  • Where you meet it: horoscopes, fortune telling, handwriting analysis, online quizzes, and personality reports of every quality.
  • The counter: ask whether the description could be wrong about you, and whether it would fit someone else just as well.

Forer's classroom demonstration

In 1948 the psychologist Bertram Forer gave 39 of his psychology students a questionnaire he called the Diagnostic Interest Blank. Each student then received a personality sketch, apparently based on their own answers, and was asked to rate how well it described them on a scale from 0 (very poor) to 5 (excellent).

Every student received exactly the same 13 statements, which Forer had assembled from a newsstand astrology book. They included:

  • “You have a great need for other people to like and admire you.”
  • “You have a tendency to be critical of yourself.”
  • “You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage.”

The class rated the identical sketch at an average of about 4.3 out of 5. Forer published the result in 1949 as “the fallacy of personal validation”: the fact that a description feels true to the person reading it says almost nothing about whether the test behind it measured anything.

Why it is called the Barnum effect

The name came seven years later. In 1956 Paul Meehl, one of the most influential figures in clinical psychology, complained about psychological reports filled with descriptions that are true of nearly every patient, and called them “Barnum” descriptions, after the showman P. T. Barnum, known for offering a little something for everybody. The term stuck, and today “Barnum effect” and “Forer effect” are used for the same thing.

What makes people accept a Barnum description

Dozens of studies followed Forer's. Three reviews pulled them together: C. R. Snyder and colleagues in 1977, Dean Dickson and Ivan Kelly in 1985, and Adrian Furnham and Sandra Schofield, who examined nearly 50 studies in 1987. Their conclusions line up:

  • “This is about you.” Acceptance depends on how relevant the description seems: the more people believe a text was written for them personally, the more accurate they rate it.
  • Flattery. Favourable descriptions are accepted more readily than unfavourable ones.
  • The look of a test. The type of assessment matters: a sketch that appears to come out of a questionnaire, inkblot or birth chart carries more weight than one that comes from nowhere.
  • Not the messenger's credentials. Roger Ulrich and colleagues found in 1963 that students rated an identical interpretation as good or excellent whether a professional psychologist or a student gave it, and wrote comments praising the examiner.
  • Closeness. Mitchell Handelsman and Joanne McLain found in 1988 that couples who were intimate friends rated the feedback as more accurate, and remembered more of it, than pairs of strangers.

Part of the work is done by memory. Readers notice the lines that fit and pass over those that don't, the same selective search that drives confirmation bias. And many Barnum statements hedge both ways (“at times extroverted, at other times reserved”), so they cannot miss.

The Barnum effect and astrology

Horoscopes are the textbook example, and the question of whether they work was tested directly. In a double-blind study published in Nature in 1985, the physicist Shawn Carlson asked astrologers to match people's birth charts to their personality profiles. They did no better than chance. The Barnum effect explains how a horoscope can feel right anyway.

Wording matters too. In a 2005 European Commission survey of the then 25 EU countries, 41% of people rated astrology as scientific (4 or 5 on a five-point scale). When half the sample was asked about “horoscopes” instead, only 13% did. The same practice feels more credible when it sounds like a discipline than when it sounds like a newspaper column.

The Barnum effect and personality tests

Every personality report is exposed to the Barnum effect, good tests included, because the reader's feeling of recognition comes from the reader, not the test. That is why “it described me perfectly” is weak evidence about any test, including the popular 16-type questionnaires, the Enneagram and our own personality assessment. Better questions to ask are:

  • Could it be wrong? A useful result makes claims specific enough that you could disagree with them.
  • Would it fit someone else? Read a friend's result. If it describes you equally well, it is telling you little.
  • Is it stable? Retake the test after a few weeks. A measurement that changes with your mood is not measuring a trait.
  • Is there a number and a norm? Scores compared with a reference group, with a margin of error, are harder to fake than a paragraph of prose.

Ability tests are less exposed, because a score on a reasoning test comes from right and wrong answers rather than from self-description. Even then, the paragraph that interprets a score should be read with Forer's class in mind.

How to avoid being fooled

  • Swap the name. Ask whether the description would fit your friend, your sister or a stranger as well as it fits you.
  • Strike out the hedges. Delete every statement that covers both possibilities and see what is left.
  • Notice the flattery. The more pleasant a description, the more readily people accept it, so be most sceptical of the parts you like.
  • Look for evidence of accuracy, not feeling. Retest reliability, independent validation and stated error margins tell you more than how right a result feels.

Trust and scope notes

This page summarises published research for general information. It is not psychological advice. The IQ Revealed IQ test is an online reasoning test of 40 original items for adults aged 18 and over; it does not measure the Barnum effect or any other thinking bias. Our personality assessment is independently developed, and the questions on this page apply to it as much as to any other test.

IQ Revealed is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to the researchers, universities, journals, publishers or institutions named on this page, or to 16Personalities, NERIS Analytics Limited or The Myers-Briggs Company. 16Personalities® and MBTI® are the trademarks of their respective owners. Names are used only to identify the work being described.